thoughts on abortion...
What would happen if Roe v Wade got overturned?
Everyone always carps constantly on Roe v Wade ... let's imagine for a moment that Roe was overturned by the Supreme Court ... what would actually happen????
Here's what would happen ...
All of a sudden, abortion would be illegal in roughly 25 states (there is some debate about which states have actually have abortion laws on the books as many states have contradictory laws because Roe v Wade basically declares that all states have to at least allow abortions to adults). These states cover about 1/3 of the country’s population.
So if Roe got overturned … all of a sudden … about a 1/3 of the nation’s population will not have ready access to abortion. Many women wanting an abortion may have to drive many hours to get to a state that will allow one. Many will be severely inconvenienced. Many, no doubt, may choose to have the baby which might go unwanted. And many will suffer serious health risks when they turn to alternative measures like back-alley doctors or black-market abortion drugs.
But how long will this go on for?
We often forget that there will be immediate political ramifications from Roe v Wade being overturned.
This country is overwhelmingly pro-choice. According to the Pew Research Center, in 1987 41% of the country favored making it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion and 51% opposed – a ten point margin. Today (a February 2004 Pew poll), just 36% support more abortion restrictions and 58% oppose more restrictions – a 22 point margin!
So not only is the country strongly pro-choice – the trend is that we are becoming even more pro-choice. And the Hispanic myth of social conservatism does not hold in this case – they have a whopping 24-point margin opposing more restrictions to abortion.
If Roe v Wade got overturned, here is what I think will happen:
First ... Democrats would immediately take over Congress (both the House and the Senate) in the next congressional election ... it would be like 1994 for the Democrats ...
Also ... Democrats would substantially change many of the state-houses (a majority a which are now controlled by Republicans) in their favor ...
And then ... the new Congress's first order of business would be to pass a federal law ensuring that abortion is legal everywhere in the United States ... with a Democratic sweep, abortion will become more prevalent and even easier to get.
So ... if you are pro-choice, what are the actual consequences of Roe being overturned?
- for a very brief time (less than three years), a small number of states representing an even small percentage of the U.S. population would be pro-life.
- after that brief time, the law of the land would be legal access to abortions.
The new Congress would resemble America and remain committed to legalized abortions (and even in today's congress, a majority of its members are pro-choice).
Now granted this ... if you are pro-choice, what is the big deal about Roe? very few committed Republicans (even those that are adamantly pro-life) actually want Roe to be overturned. it would be a real disaster for the Grand Ole Party.
So the real paradox is this:
If you are pro-life: You don’t want Roe overturned because it will likely lead to even more liberalized abortions across the country.
If you are pro-choice: You actually want Roe overturned. Your short term loss will yield a very long term gain.
